Predictive Factors for Time to Remission and Recurrence in Patients Treated for Acute Mania: Health Outcomes of Manic Episodes (HOME) Study

Objective: To determine the time to remission and recurrence in patients treated for acute mania and the predictive factors associated with these outcomes.

Method: This observational study, conducted in Turkey from April 2003 to January 2005, included patients with a DSM-IV diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, acute manic or mixed episode who were eligible to have an oral medication initiated or changed for the treatment of the episode. The patients were followed-up for 12 months.

Results: A total of 584 patients (mean ± SD age = 33.9 ± 11.2, 55.2% outpatients) were enrolled in 53 centers. Eighty-five percent of patients had a manic episode at baseline, with a mean ± SD duration of 21.6 ± 24.4 days. The baseline mean ± SD Clinical Global Impressions scale for use in bipolar disorder and Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) scores were 4.9 ± 0.9 (median = 5.0) and 33.2 ± 9.3 (median = 33), respectively. 539 patients achieved remission and, of those, 141 patients had recurrence. One-year remission and recurrence rates were 99.0% and 35.7%, respectively. Mean ± SD times to remission and recurrence in descriptive statistics were 80.9 ± 73.8 (median = 50) and 159.0 ± 95.5 (median = 156) days, respectively. In Cox regression analysis, psychiatric comorbidities (p = .048), a higher YMRS score (p < .001), and a higher number of previous depressive episodes (p = .009) were statistically significant predictors of a longer time to reach remission. Index episodes of longer duration (p = .033) and mixed type (p = 0.49) were significant predictors of a shorter time to recurrence. Confounding factors like concomitant treatment, comorbidities, and lack of blinding and randomization were other limitations.

Conclusion: Predictors for a longer time to remission were psychiatric comorbidities, a higher YMRS score, and a higher number of previous depressive episodes. Predictors for a shorter time to recurrence were episodes of longer duration and mixed type.